Amid an escalating conflict involving Iran‑Israel‑US tensions, now more than three weeks in, with Washington deploying more than 4,000 Marines to the region and weighing further troop movements even as talk of a ceasefire surfaces, oil markets have been swinging sharply in response to both military developments and diplomatic signals.Larry Fink, one of the eight co-founders of BlackRock and now its chairman and chief executive, has warned that prices could surge to $150 a barrel and push the global economy into recession if Iran continues to threaten energy supply routes even after the war ends.
A conflict shaping the direction of oil markets
BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager with around $14 trillion in assets, is one of the most influential financial institutions on the planet. Its vast scale and reach give chairman and CEO Larry Fink a unique vantage point on global events and their potential impact on the economy.In an interview on the BBC’s Big Boss Interview podcast published on Wednesday, he said it remains too early to determine the final outcome of the war, but the direction of oil prices will hinge on what follows.If the conflict is resolved and Iran becomes a country “that can be accepted again by the international community”, he said, prices could fall back to below their pre-war level, which was around $70 a barrel.But that outcome depends on more than a ceasefire.
“Years of above $100… closer to $150 oil”
Fink warned that even if fighting stops, markets could remain under pressure if Iran continues to pose a threat to trade and regional stability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.“If there is a cessation of war, and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a threat to this peaceful coexistence of the GCC region, then I would argue that we could have years of above US$100 closer to US$150 oil which has profound implications in the economy,” he said. He added that such a scenario would amount to “a probably stark and steep recession”.
Supply disruption centred on a critical chokepoint
The warning comes as the conflict has all but halted shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that typically carries about one-fifth of the world’s gas and crude supply.The scale of disruption has drawn concern from the International Energy Agency, which has described the situation as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
This image released by the Royal Thai Navy shows Thai cargo ship, Mayuree Naree, that was struck and set ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (Royal Thai Navy via AP)
Brent crude prices have climbed to their highest levels in nearly four years, at one point nearing $120 a barrel.On Wednesday, however, prices fell about 4% to around $98 after reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war, raising the prospect of a ceasefire.Iran has strongly rejected claims by Donald Trump that negotiations are underway to end the ongoing conflict, with its top military command mocking Washington’s statements.In a video shared by Iranian media, a military spokesperson dismissed the suggestion outright, saying the United States was effectively “negotiating with itself.” The spokesperson delivered a defiant message, emphasizing that Tehran has no intention of entering talks under current conditions.“Our first and last word… has been, is, and will remain: someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, and not ever,” the spokesperson said.At the same time, Washington has deployed more than 4,000 US Marines to the region and is considering sending a combat brigade from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, signalling a potential escalation.
Damage to infrastructure and delayed recovery
Even if hostilities were to ease, energy supply is unlikely to rebound quickly. More than 40 energy assets across nine countries in the Middle East have been “severely or very severely” damaged, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said, meaning that oil fields, refineries, and pipelines cannot be restored immediately.
Residents look on and take pictures as flames and smoke rise from an oil storage facility struck as attacks hit the city during the U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, March 7, 2026. (Alireza Sotakbar/ISNA via AP)
The destruction will prolong disruptions to global supply chains even after the conflict ends. Birol, speaking Monday at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra, compared the current situation to past crises: “The effect of the current disruptions is equivalent to the two major oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 natural gas crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine, all put together.” He added that the impact goes beyond oil and gas. “Some of the vital arteries of the global economy, such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, helium, their trade is all interrupted, which will have serious consequences for the global economy,” Birol said.
Impact on households and the push towards alternative energy
Fink also warned that higher energy prices would have a direct and uneven impact on consumers, particularly in countries dependent on imports. “Rising energy prices is a very regressive tax. It affects the poor more than the wealthy,” he said. In the UK, where much of the country’s energy is imported, rising oil and gas costs are expected to feed through into household bills in the coming months. The pressure has already prompted calls from some energy experts for governments to expand domestic oil and gas production to reduce exposure to external shocks.
At the same time, Fink said sustained high prices could accelerate the shift towards alternative energy sources. “If oil prices rise to $150 you would have so many countries moving so rapidly towards solar and maybe even wind,” he said. “Use what you have unquestionably, but also aggressively move towards alternative sources too.”
